Predicting the monsoon – R. RAMACHANDRAN



The new strategy has been to move away from a deterministic forecast of this single quantity, the India Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR), to a probabilistic forecast. In fact, India is the only country which gives a quantitative long-range forecast (LRF) when long-range forecast, whether statistical or dynamical, is a highly probabilistic exercise depending very critically on the initial (summer-time) values of the meteorological variables and the models used. In the statistical approach, the variables are certain meteorological (regional and global) parameters that have been found to be statistically well-correlated to the ISMR. In the dynamical approach they are the values of physical variables themselves, such as pressure, wind velocity, etc.

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