The battle lines are drawn in Telangana once again as the Congress and the Telugu Desam party decided to contest the by-elections necessitated by the resignation of 12 legislators on the Telangana issue. Now, the curiosity is only on two questions .What will be the electoral out come. What will be the impact of such an out come. The often asked question is what the TRS gained by forcing elections again and again .

The critics point out to the fact that TRS lost its strength in every elections it forced on the electorate. It is true numerically. The TRS supremo won by a land mark margin when he first resigned and contested from the karimnagar Loksabha seat. This was then projected as the triumph of Telangana cause.  But, the same KCR had to struggle to scrape through the next time.  Similarly, the TRS made significant wins in the early years of its inception when elections were held to local bodies. But, in the 2004 Assembly elections, its performance was relatively weaker when compared to the Congress with which it had electoral understanding. Subsequently, in the by-elections held in the wake of the resignation of TRS MLAs, it could not retain majority of its sitting seats. The poor performance of TRS was drubbed as weakening of Telangana sentiment. But, there is yet another facet to this result. The TRS won 16 seats with the support of Congress in 2004 polls and won six seats on its own facing both the Congress and the TDP.

The voting tally of TRS was higher compared to both the congress and the TDP. The TRS contesting alone could get as much as 30 percent voting. But, the TRS failed to project this as its positive achievement. The TRS supremo went into oblivion for sometime. There was a revolt against KCR. In 2009 Assembly elections, the TRS won only 10 seats. Its tally was relatively weaker as compared to TDP with which it had an electoral understanding. This is almost the repeat of 2004 scenario of course, TDP replacing Congress as an ally. On both the occasions, it was clear that TRS was a junior partner either to Congress or TDP both in terms of seats it contested and especially in terms of seats it won. The TRS can not be oblivious to this political reality in Telangana. Infect the TRS leadership decided to make its MLAs resign but MPs did not as it is fully aware of political reality. It is also a fact that people of Telangana gave 50 seats to Y S Rajashekhar Reddy knowing fully well that if he retains power Telangana separate State will be an impossible thing to happen .Unlike other leaders Y S Rajashekhar Reddy was much more forthright in his opposition to Telangana demand.

The analysis of this history is essential to understand the present political situation in Telangana.    The recent history of elections in Telangana has shown a distinct pattern in different situations. The TRS performed well whenever Telangana issue dominated the election scenario. The party faired poorly when Telangana issue is one among the several issues in the run up to elections. It is also true that the people of Telangana did not always positively respond to the Resignation episode. This is evident from the experience of KCR himself when he resigned for the second time. The Congress and the TDP are organizationally much stronger than the TRS. The internal bickering in the TRS and voices of dissent against KCR were swept under the carpet in the wake of emotional upsurge in Telangana region after KCR hunger strike and the subsequent developments.  Elections are not always fought on emotional plank alone. The TRS can face rough weather in few constituencies if it fails to rouse very strong Telangana sentiment unless the elections are turned into a referendum on Telangana .Of course, there are maximum opportunities for the TRS to convert this election into a do or die battle on Telangana. There seems to be no other issue dominating the election scene. There is no charismatic leader like YS Rajashekhar Reddy to steer the campaign for the ruling Congress. The welfare schemes are being rolled back. The soaring prices, the infighting in Congress, withdrawal of populist schemes would add to the wounds of the Congress. The pro-telangana voter will be enthused to participate in the voting. The general voters of the other political parties have no reason to feel enthusiastic about these elections.

The continuity of the positive mandate it received in 2009 is only an encouraging factor for the Congress. This was evident in the elections to Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation. Despite being rocked by unprecedented war of succession, the Congress could perform reasonably well in the GHMC polls held in the aftermath of tragic demise of Rajashekhar Reddy. The Congress itself has a brand value no matter who promotes it and who sells it. The organizational strength of TDP is still intact despite the party caught in a difficult situation over the Telangana issue. In fact, many of its leaders came back to the party fold. The TRS has to counter these formidable negatives. But, the Congress defense on the Telangana issue is unlikely to convince people. It is difficult for the Congress to face the political googlies bowled by TRS. The Congress claim that it is the party that would ultimately deliver Telangana would not make any sense as no force prevents it from doing so. The congress has no mass leader to steer its campaign. The ambivalence of TDP on Telangana would be a factor for its candidates to incur the wrath of Telangana loyalists. But, the only comfort it would enjoy is that it is an opposition party and can neither prevent nor facilitate the formation of Telangana .The TDP has to depend more on the individual strength of its candidates and the anti-incumbency enjoyed by Congress. The BJP is caught in an enigmatic situation. It can not claim to have sacrificed anything .The decision of BJP state president not to resign for his MLA seat disarms the party of an advantage which the TRS candidates enjoy.

In the ultimate analysis, the outcome of by polls simply depends on the extent of Telangana temperature. The ability of TRS and the Telangana loyalists to rally the masses on the Telangana issue will be put to test. Failing to do so would mean   a self inflicted goal.

Except the Telangana factor, no other factor seems to be enthusing the voters if this continues, the TRS can reap political dividends. If the factors like the strength of the party, merits of the candidate, local issues etc., gain momentum as the election date approaches, TRS has to face challenge. One has to wait and watch how the political scenario unfolds on the Telangana landscape.